Sunday 14 September 2014

Hey Joe, where you goin’ with that Tesla in your hand?

Some notable environmentalists have been ‘against’ Hydrogen as a possible energy solution for a remarkably long time – Joe Romm’s ‘The Hype About Hydrogen’ goes back ten years now, to 2004. The RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute) isn’t keen. In the meantime, other energy solutions have made progress, in particular, as Romm points out in his recent series on ClimateProgress, in the field of personal transportation. But even on that site, Ryan Koronowski reports on developments at Toyota and Hyundai which look promising (here).
In 2006, Romm’s main criticism was summarised nicely in the Scientific American article ‘Hybrid Vehicles’, and usefully quoted by him in one of his articles;

For policymakers concerned about global warming, plug-in hybrids hold an edge over another highly touted green vehicle technology — hydrogen fuel cells. Plug-ins would be better at utilizing zero-carbon electricity because the overall hydrogen fueling process is inherently costly and inefficient. Any effective hydrogen economy would require an infrastructure that could use zero-carbon power to electrolyze water into hydrogen, convey this highly diffuse gas long distances, and pump it at high pressure into the car -– all for the purpose of converting the hydrogen back to electricity in a fuel cell to drive electric motor.
The entire process of electrolysis, transportation, pumping and fuel-cell conversion would leave only about 20 to 25 percent of the original zero-carbon electricity to drive the motor. In a plug-in hybrid, the process of electricity transmission, charging an onboard battery and discharging the battery would leave 75 to 80 percent of the original electricity to drive the motor. Thus, a plug-in should be able to travel three to four times farther on a kilowatt-hour of renewable electricity than a hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle could.

Summarising the problems that all AFVs have, Joe usefully produces a list:

1. High first cost for vehicle
2. On-board fuel storage issues (i.e. limited range)
3. Safety and liability concerns
4. High fueling cost (compared to gasoline)
5. Limited fuel stations: chicken and egg problem
6. Improvements in the competition (better, cleaner gasoline vehicles).
7. Problems delivering cost-effective emissions reductions

Some recent research, though, has led me to question some of the assumptions which lead away from Hydrogen as a viable energy ‘solution’, and to reach the conclusion that, done in the right way, hydrogen has the potential to help move our society much closer to the ideal ‘zero carbon world’. Here is some of that evidence.

Before the detail, though, I should point out that there is no real disagreement with Romm’s arguments – he knows what he’s talking about – especially in respect to FCVs and FCEVs. And some of his criticisms may need to be fleshed out in more detail later, otherwise this piece could be endless. On the other side of the coin, as with electric hybrid technology, things have moved on a pace, and at least some of the problems are already close to resolution. Hyundai has the new ix35 FCEV, with a range of 360 miles. Nissan has new fuel cell stack technology, as do Hitachi, who are working on CHES storage (Carbon Hydride) amongst other things. There’s a new Honda on the way, too.

The biggest obstruction to generic hydrogen use is the problem of distribution. So let’s get rid of it. Instead of hydrolysing at a distance, follow the Toshiba model (below), and produce locally. As well as being a by-product of some existing factory processes, hydrogen can be produced direct at the site of a wind-farm (which also means the maximal use of the energy generated, in the sense that there is no distribution loss from the transformer to the end-use). A small (but commercially viable) local wind farm will be practicable in plenty of places (though not all – for example in Africa, where the long-term mean annual wind speeds in the centre of the continent just won’t do the job), where anything from 1-50MW capacity local farms will produce electricity almost as cost-effectively as on the really big ‘Texas-scale’ farms. For the majority of the time, the energy from these goes direct to a local ‘island’ or national grid infrastructure for direct use. But there are always times when supply exceeds demand. What to do with the excess? Store it as hydrogen.

Using a suitable piece of engineering, it is simple enough to then transfer the gas, suitably pressurised, into rail tenders purpose built for this. The tenders can then be towed down the line to a rail head or terminal where they can be simply linked up to the rolling stock. This means the expense and consumption implied in Romm’s model is reduced to a sufficiently low level that the relative inefficiencies are compensated for.

This is one area where I think hydrogen has real potential for solving some of the problems Joe and others bring up, in the rail network. Though it is underfunded and still not fully realised, some good work has been going on for years, and several projects are running around the world. Hydrail has a useful links page and some summaries of what is happening here. Or, you could look at this article from Future Rail magazine.

In Japan (where else?), several companies have been working on Hydrogen for a variety of purposes. Toshiba have an ongoing demonstration project in Kitakyushu, in which hydrogen as a by-product of steel production in a nearby factory services homes, fuel stations and local businesses. There’s a promotional demo here, which includes a grumpy kid and a cute puppy, so don’t switch it on if you’re easily nauseated. There’s a lot missing from the demo video, so let’s not pretend that all the answers are there now. But there’s more…

Here’s a pdf of a presentation on the work done recently at Ulsan and Insheon in Korea, with heavy involvement from Hyundai. It’s useful for some real numbers, demonstrations of distribution plans, and the absence of kids and puppies. In upstate New York, GE has a new domestic energy hydrogen research facility working to roll out products by 2017.
Which leads me to the ‘obvious’ link up. If it is possible and effective to generate at a wind farm, store in tenders, and link to the transport (rail) system, could we do the same for personal transportation? I see no reason why not. This is how it might work.

A hydrogen management system is installed (much as an oil tank or gas tank is put in already) outside the home. Solar panels (where wind is not practical) on the garage roof, or the house roof, generate electricity which can be switched on demand to the household system, battery backup systems, the hydrolysis ‘machine’, and, if relevant, the grid. The hydrogen ‘terminal’ contains loadable fuel cell units which can be transferred to a car/auto, a stove, or whatever. Plastic gas pipes can feed into the house, where a combined heating and ventilation system can be operated. There may even be a hose point to feed a car’s storage, so when you get home in the evening, you can fill it up in three minutes. All of the technology to deliver this (with some modification) already exists – nothing new has to be invented. Safety levels are now very high – probably better than domestic propane systems, at a guess – and the renewable energy generated is used where it is needed, when it is needed, without so much wastage or loss.

The novelty here, such as it is, lies in three elements – one, the synthesis of energy needs for the average person – home, heat, transport – two, the transferability of the energy storage medium between uses, and three, the removal or reduction of pretty much all of that list of reasons why it didn’t used to work, in particular the problems of distribution and infrastructure. And so the average Jo or Joe can maintain a modern lifestyle (whilst being energy efficient, of course), independence, and achieve some payback on energy saved, gas saved, utility and domestic costs.

Which leaves three unanswerable issues from the list. The initial cost, which is determined by the cost of technology and demand volume. Improvements in other technologies, which are happening all the time, but can be seen as complementary or alternative solutions which will work better in some cases. And, finally, the achievable cost-effectiveness of the whole package. Which I can’t answer. Because it depends on comparative energy costs, ratio of energy usage, which will vary depending on lifestyles, and other factors which as things stand are incommensurable.

It may not be the final word, but it really is starting to look, to me, like the day of Hydrogen is on the way, if not as the ‘magic bullet’, then at least as another in the mix of energy solutions which will help get us out of this mess.

7 comments:

  1. I have seen 26% energy cost saving on LNG and 41% on FF Fuels quoted on the Ulsan project, on a housing scheme.
    Given the source of energy used for hydrolysation, the main costs are transfer and storage. Previously, the problem was that it was estimated that 70% of the cost/CO2 saving was lost in distribution - with this method that cost is eliminated.

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  2. Fergus: I don´t have the foggiest idea of what you are writing about. My comment was simply meant to point out that manufacturing hydrogen is very expensive. I suppose you do realize we use hydrogen in huge quantities? It´s use to hydrogenate and stabilize hydrocarbon molecules after they are broken up in a refinery.

    The search for a cheap hydrogen source, or ways to optimize its manufacture is constant. If we could find a really cheap hydrogen source then we could manufacture really cool fuels. For example we have run experimental runs on dimethyl ether (C2H6O), a biodegradable completely sulfur free synthetic fuel we can use in diesel engines. The search for a less carbon intensive means to manufacture DME is quite intensive. If your proposed hydrogen manufacturing system really worked we could implement it at a grand scale and replace diesel with a much nicer fuel.

    http://www.environmentalleader.com/2013/06/10/volvo-heavy-trucks-will-use-dimethyl-ether-fuel/

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    1. You touch on a key point of difficulty, here; if the aim is solely to replace oil/gas/fuel with Hydrogen, the volume requirement is immense, more than could be produced by 'green' means. This is one of the reasons why earlier research concluded that hydrogen cannot 'replace' gas (petrol) in the economy.

      My contention is that there are uses for hydrogen which make adoption viable, but like all non-FF tech, it is contextual. We do not need to presume that one solution must replace the FF industry.

      Thanks to steve R I am looking in to the real-term costs of domestic h as an option.

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  3. If one is going to ignore the long-term costs of doing nothing because new technology is too costly, one really is in a hole. That's just cutting off the face to spite one's nose, isn't it?

    I like the idea of integrating clean energy with storage and delivery, which in my amateur way I'm thinking this is about. Objecting that fossil is cheaper right now seems like a dangerous dead end to me. I see this technical stuff is way over my head, but at the real life level, that could be important and even life saving in the long run. Holding on to a century old model of fuel seems backwards to me.

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  4. If you want to "change the model" to introduce an alternative to capitalism you will meet with fierce resistance. Socialism just doesn´t work. There are very good reasons why it fails every time, and I have witnessed the failures over and over and over again. I am the result of a social experiment, and I didn´t like it at all because it failed miserably.

    Also, I don´t think things are nearly as bad as many of you think on the greenhouse effect area. First, it does look like we are gaining a breather because surface temperatures are flattening out and may stay flat for another 15 years. Two because this implies the climate sensitivity may be lower than projected. And third (the cruncher), we ARE running out of fossil fuels.

    The fact that we ARE running out of fossil fuels is very evident to those of us who work (or in my case worked) in the industry. I think i pointed out a detailed review of the OIL reserve positions held by the major oil companies will show you the reserves are dropping. Lower reserves implies lower production, and that´s what we see.

    OPEC and nations such as Russia have been able to cover the lower production elsewhere, but they themselves are reaching their limits. This means the oil and gas prices have to rise to stimulate more production. And as they rise other energy sources become more viable.

    Thus the problem isn´t really global warming at all. That willl sort itself out as oil and gas prices increase. And if you want to help it along then all you have to do is advocate a simple carbon tax and some simple measures such as encouraging the current carbon burning electricity generation plants to upgrade to a higher thermodynamic efficiency (a change over from the currently prevailing technology to supercritical steam generation can increase efficiency from about 33 to about 45 %).

    Other common sense measures I can see are providing loan funds for third world countries to build hydropower plants, making the deal work so they agree to set regulations to have coal plants use the latest technology so they burn coal at high efficiency.

    Finally it´s fairly easy to reduce methane and soot. Methane requires regulations for producers, segreating the garbage and having methane recovery in garbage dumps, and also changing rice varieties so they won´t generate so much methane.

    As you can see a fairly straighforward and pragmatic set of proposals will accomplish something. Sitting there and waving your arms and screaming this is the end of the planet won´t lead you anywhere. You guys don´t have the credibility and frankly the proposals are impractical.

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    1. You are assuming that there are only two models for politics, capitalism or socialism. I disagree - there are many flavours of governance, and most of them have a social (statist/federal) element and a market element. Instead consider the possibility that there are good reasons to have state support for the ordinary Jo, to protect us from increasing inequity and injustice, and good reasons to intervene in markets with a light touch - though this latter is probably wishful thinking.

      We know already that we disagree on the greenhouse effect and climate sensitivity - I can only persist in asking you to read the evidence in the AR5 and try to be objective in your analysis.

      Peak oil is not the same as peak fossil fuels. Coal is an immense problem, with vast reserves and serious environmental and health issues. Unless something is done to address the coal problem, we will be in more trouble regardless of warming, which trouble will be exacerbated by the changing climate and our inability to adapt.

      Your last paragraph is another set of bad-mannered insults which do not make you look reasonable. Besides which, you are still ignoring the evidence and just bloviating.

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What do you think?